Global oil crisis looming
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), increased demand for oil, combined with lags in production is likely to result in a supply crunch in the next few years. Considering the existing fuel shortages in Zimbabwe, and many other parts of Africa, this is potentially very bad news for South African motorists.
From Business Day:
In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the adviser to 26 industrialised countries said demand would rise an average 2,2% a year from this year until 2012, up from a previous medium-term forecast of 2%.
The outlook, which updates an IEA forecast last issued in February, coincides with a jump in oil prices to more than $75 a barrel, closing in on a record high near $79, on concern about a tightening market.
“Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010,” the IEA said. “It is possible the supply crunch could be deferred — but not by much.”
The IEA’s previous medium-term report called for world demand growth of 2% a year from last year until 2011.
It now expects global demand to reach 95,8-million barrels a day (bpd) from 86,1-million this year . The forecast assumes average global gross domestic product growth of 4,5% a year.
“The results of our analysis are quite strong,” said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division.
“Something needs to happen. Either we need to have more supplies coming on stream or we need to have lower demand growth.”
“Lower demand growth”… that’s where we as motorists and consumers come in. The oil supply crisis parallels our current electricity supply problem in South Africa. Despite unreliable supply from Eskom, electricity users can make a difference to the stability of our supply by using electricity efficiently, and not wasting.
The same is becoming increasingly applicable to motorists in the face of fuel supply shortages. Use less fuel (look here, if you’re looking for tips how) and do your bit to help avert the fuel crisis.
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